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Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method

  • Campos, Nauro F


    (Brunel University)

  • Coricelli, Fabrizio


    (Paris School of Economics)

  • Moretti, Luigi


    (University of Padova)

This paper presents new estimates of the economic benefits from economic and political integration. Using the synthetic counterfactuals method, we estimate how GDP per capita and labour productivity would have behaved for the countries that joined the European Union (EU) in the 1973, 1980s, 1995 and 2004 enlargements, if those countries had not joined the EU. We find large positive effects from EU membership but these differ across countries and over time (they are only negative for Greece). We calculate that without deep economic and political integration, per capita incomes would have been, on average, approximately 12 percent lower.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 8162.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8162
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  1. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Daniel Brou & Michele Ruta, 2011. "Economic Integration, Political Integration Or Both?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(6), pages 1143-1167, December.
  3. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
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  16. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
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  18. Ettore Dorrucci & Stefano Firpo & Marcel Fratzscher & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2004. "The Link between Institutional and Economic Integration: Insights for Latin America from the European Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 239-260, 07.
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  22. Slaughter, Matthew J., 2001. "Trade liberalization and per capita income convergence: a difference-in-differences analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 203-228, October.
  23. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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