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Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe

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  • TOBIAS KNEDLIK
  • GREGOR VON SCHWEINITZ

Abstract

European authorities and scholars published proposals on which indicators of macroeconomic imbalances might be used to uncover risks for the sustainability of public debt in the European Union. We test the ability of four proposed sets of indicators to send early-warnings of debt crises using a signals approach for the study of indicators and the construction of composite indicators. We find that a broad composite indicator has the highest predictive power. This fact still holds true if equal weights are used for the construction of the composite indicator in order to reflect the uncertainty about the origin of future crises.
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Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:50:y:2012:i:5:p:726-745
    DOI: j.1468-5965.2012.02264.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2018. "Early Warning System of Government Debt Crises," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1724, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
    3. Peter Wierts & Henk van Kerkhoff & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Trade Dynamics in the Euro Area: The role of export destination and composition," DNB Working Papers 354, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Claudia M. Buch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2014. "Do we need new modelling approaches in macroeconomics?," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 3, pages 36-58 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. repec:exl:25engi:v:27:y:2016:i:2:p:134-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    7. Knedlik, Tobias, 2012. "The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The Impact of Preferences on an Early Warning System," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Luiza APOSTOL, 2014. "A Set of Ten Relevant Statistical Indicators of Romania’s External Debt Today," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 67-78, January.
    9. Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias, 2017. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European countries," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. von Schweinitz, Gregor & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Signaling Crises: How to Get Good Out-of-Sample Performance Out of the Early Warning System," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112964, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Makram El-shagi & Logan J Kelly, 2014. "Liquidity in the liquidity crisis: evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates in Germany and the European crisis countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 63-72.
    12. Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    13. Catarina Lourenço Soares & Adelaide Maria de Sousa Figueiredo & Fernanda Otília de Sousa Figueiredo, 2014. "Analysis of Public, Private and Financial Sectors in European Countries Through the Statis Methodology," FEP Working Papers 541, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    14. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufwind - Europäische Schuldenkrise schwelt weiter," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(08), pages 03-72, April.
    15. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:275-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013. "Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
    17. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2014: Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung - aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
    18. Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte: Auswertung der bisherigen Erfahrung und mögliche Reformansätze," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Knedlik, Tobias, 2014. "The impact of preferences on early warning systems — The case of the European Commission's Scoreboard," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 157-166.
    21. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "The German Model and the European Crisis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1023-1039, November.
    22. Dermot Hodson, 2013. "The Eurozone in 2012: ‘Whatever It Takes to Preserve the Euro'?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51, pages 183-200, September.
    23. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2012. "The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 537-563.
    24. repec:bla:rdevec:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:451-474 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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