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Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach

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  • Brüggemann, Axel
  • Linne, Thomas

Abstract

The aim of paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolutin of of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects s in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate. Weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good precictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities. Keywords: F31, F47, financial crises, vulnerability indicator, Central and Eastern Europe

Suggested Citation

  • Brüggemann, Axel & Linne, Thomas, 2002. "Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2002_005
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    Cited by:

    1. María José Gil-Moltó & Joanna Poyago-Theotoky & Vasileios Zikos, 2006. "R&D policy and privatization in a mixed oligopoly," Discussion Paper Series 2006_25, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    2. Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
    3. Knedlik, Tobias, 2006. "Signaling Currency Crises in South Africa," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2006, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 937-957, November.
    5. Chin-Hong Puah, & Tai-Hock Kuek, & M. Affendy Arip,, 2017. "Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(4), pages 496-505, October.
    6. Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias, 2017. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European countries," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Assessing Indicators of Currency Crisis in Ethiopia: Signals Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(3), pages 315-330, September.
    8. Michal Pazour, 2008. "Stanovení náchylnosti ekonomiky k nadměrným tlakům na měnový kurs [Vulnerabilities in an economy to extensive pressures on the exchange rate]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(5), pages 598-620.
    9. El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013. "Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
    10. Ivo Krznar, 2004. "Currency Crisis: Theory and Practice with Application to Croatia," Working Papers 12, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    11. Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Forecasting Currency Crises: Which Methods Signaled The South African Crisis Of June 2006?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 367-383, September.
    12. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2006_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
    13. Alvarez-Plata, Patricia & Schrooten, Mechthild, 2004. "Misleading indicators? The Argentinean currency crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 587-603, July.
    14. Fuat SEKMEN & Murat KURKCU, 2014. "An Early Warning System for Turkey: The Forecasting Of Economic Crisis by Using the Artificial Neural Networks," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 529-543, April.
    15. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2004. "Essays on financial crises in emerging markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2004_029.
    16. Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2020. "Financial Vulnerability and Economic Dynamics in Malaysia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 55-73.

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