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Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
[Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]

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  • Saadaoui, Jamel

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s, we observe a global increase of current account imbalances. In 2007, before the climax of the financial crisis, they reached 2% of world GDP in absolute value. At the global level, the persistence of large current account imbalances is a threat to the macroeconomic and macrofinancial stability. This thesis analyses this phenomenon of global imbalances by using two complementary approaches: equilibrium exchange rates models and stock-flow consistent models. These two approaches can be considered as complementary insofar as they analyze the same problem from a different point of view. Equilibrium exchange rate models and particularly the FEER approach introduced by Williamson (1994) try to calculate exchange rate variations needed to reach a sustainable current account balance. Stock-flow consistent models à la Godley-Lavoie (2007) seek to analyze adjustments in terms of level of output and exchange rate dynamics in a context of imbalances. A return of large imbalances is not excluded. It appears that an international monetary cooperation aimed at preventing the return of large imbalances at the world and intra-European levels is a necessary condition to ensure global recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
    [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
    ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51332
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    Keywords

    Global Imbalances; Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling.;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

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