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Interdependency and adjustments in the European Union

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  • Jacques Mazier
  • Sophie Saglio

Abstract

Since the euro was launched, divergences in European economies'evolutions have been more significant than generally expected. The article, based on a multinational macroeconomic model describing the interdependence between 14 European countries, examines the role played by relative-price adjustment mechanisms and difficulties inherent in asymmetric evolutions. The efficiency of relative-price adjustment mechanisms seems limited and, even in the most flexible countries, the return to equilibrium is slow and still incomplete after 10 years. Differences in relative-price adjustment mechanisms remain a source of asymmetries between member countries. Extra-European exchanges have a stabilizing role which is uneven on account of trade openness and price elasticities. A decrease of the world demand and a depreciation of the euro, still have an important impact with significant disparities between countries. Several lessons can be drawn in terms of economic policy. A more restrictive European fiscal policy proves more costly in the long run in Germany and the Netherlands on account of the weakness of price compensation effects. On the contrary, thanks to their greater flexibility, the United Kingdom and Sweden can offset an initial negative shock more rapidly. The wage dimension in the definition of a good European policy mix has also to be examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Mazier & Sophie Saglio, 2008. "Interdependency and adjustments in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 17-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:22:y:2008:i:1:p:17-44
    DOI: 10.1080/02692170701745879
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Buscher, Herbert S. & Gabrisch, Hubert, 2011. "What Might Central Banks Lose or Gain in Case of Euro Adoption – A GARCH-Analysis of Money Market Rates for Sweden, Denmark and the UK," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
    3. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution. Comment s'ajuster en union monétaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 57-96.
    4. Florian Botte & Laurent Cordonnier & Thomas Dallery & Vincent Duwicquet & Jordan Melmies & Franck van de Velde, 2017. "The cost of capital: between losses and diversion of wealth [Le coût du capital : entre pertes et détournement de richesses]," Working Papers hal-01711157, HAL.
    5. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Sophie Saglio, 2017. "The Wage Inflation-Unemployment Curve at the Macroeconomic Level," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 55-78, February.
    6. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution: How to Adjust in a Monetary Union," Post-Print halshs-00848886, HAL.
    7. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2014. "Interest rates, eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: the challenge of sustainable adjustments in the eurozone," Working Papers halshs-01089208, HAL.
    8. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Interest rates, Eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments," Post-Print hal-01359820, HAL.
    9. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2018. "Dealing with the consequences of exchange rate misalignments for macroeconomic adjustments in the EMU," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 737-767, November.
    10. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Pascal Petit & Jamel Saadaoui, 2015. "The Future of the Euro," Post-Print hal-01399157, HAL.
      • Duwicquet, Vincent & Mazier, Jacques & Petit, Pascal & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "The future of the euro," MPRA Paper 67690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mazier, Jacques & Oh, YongHyup & Saglio, Sophie, 2008. "Exchange rates, global imbalances, and interdependence in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 53-73, February.

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