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The future of the euro

Author

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  • Duwicquet, Vincent
  • Mazier, Jacques
  • Petit, Pascal
  • Saadaoui, Jamel

Abstract

The euro crisis illustrates the deficiencies of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, few alternative mechanisms are available. Nevertheless, fiscal policy could play an active role. The chapter is organized as follow. In the first part, we give a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone, using a FEER approach, and we discuss the structural character of these misalignments. In the second part, we analyse the deadlock of the actual European institutional framework and propose two alternative exit strategies, a first step towards a fiscal federalism or, on the opposite, a new monetary regime based on a multi-euro system.

Suggested Citation

  • Duwicquet, Vincent & Mazier, Jacques & Petit, Pascal & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "The future of the euro," MPRA Paper 67690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67690
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Schettkat & Joep Damen, 2004. "Demand Patterns and Employment Structures an Aggregate Analysis," DEMPATEM Working Papers wp11, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
    2. Daniela Di Cagno & Valentina Meliciani, 2005. "Do inter-sectoral flows of services matter for productivity growth? an input/output analysis of OECD countries," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 149-171.
    3. Nayak, Purusottam & Mishra, SK, 2009. "Structural Change in Meghalaya: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 15728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Francesco Bogliacino & Matteo Lucchese & Mario Pianta, 2011. "Job creation in business services: innovation, demand, polarisation," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2011-04, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Piva, Mariacristina & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 2005. "The skill bias effect of technological and organisational change: Evidence and policy implications," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 141-157, March.
    6. Andrea Vaona & Mario Pianta, 2008. "Firm Size and Innovation in European Manufacturing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 283-299, March.
    7. Bogliacino, Francesco & Pianta, Mario, 2010. "Innovation and Employment: a Reinvestigation using Revised Pavitt classes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 799-809, July.
    8. Waheed, Abdul, 2012. "Employment effect of innovation: microdata evidence from Bangladesh and Pakistan," MERIT Working Papers 2012-024, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Francesco Crespi & Mario Pianta, 2009. "Diversity in innovation and productivity in Europe," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Lionel Nesta (ed.), Schumpeterian Perspectives on Innovation, Competition and Growth, pages 259-275, Springer.
    10. Mario Pianta, 2018. "Technology and Employment: Twelve Stylised Facts for the Digital Age," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(2), pages 189-225, June.
    11. Natália Barbosa & Ana Faria, 2008. "Technology adoption: does labour skill matter? Evidence from Portuguese firm-level data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 179-194, April.
    12. Evangelista, Rinaldo & Savona, Maria, 2003. "Innovation, employment and skills in services. Firm and sectoral evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 449-474, December.
    13. Alessandro STERLACCHINI & Francesco VENTURINI, 2006. "Is Europe becoming a knowledge-driven economy? Evidence from EU developed regions," Working Papers 253, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    14. Simona Hašková & Marek Vochozka, 2018. "Duality in Cyclical Trends in European Union Confirmed," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(1), pages 21582440177, January.
    15. Massimiliano Bratti & Nicola Matteucci, 2005. "Is there skilled-biased technological change in Italian manufacturing? Evidence from firm-level data," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 48(1-2), pages 153-182.
    16. Torben Klarl, 2013. "Consumer's Environmental Awareness and the Role of (Green) Entrepreneurship: Lessons from Environmental Quality Competition and R&D Activities for Environmental Policy," Discussion Paper Series 321, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    17. Rinaldo Evangelista & Maria Savona, 2002. "The Impact of Innovation on Employment in Services: Evidence from Italy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 309-318.
    18. Luc Soete, 2007. "From Industrial to Innovation Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 273-284, December.
    19. Jonathan Michie & Christine Oughton & Mario Pianta, 2002. "Innovation and the Economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 253-264.
    20. Bogliacino, Francesco & Pianta, Mario, 2011. "Engines of growth. Innovation and productivity in industry groups," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 41-53, February.
    21. Kinsella, Stephen, 2019. "Visualising economic crises using accounting models," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-16.
    22. Tommaso Antonucci & Mario Pianta, 2002. "Employment Effects of Product and Process Innovation in Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 295-307.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Crisis; Exchange Rate Misalignments; Fallback Strategies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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