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Interest rates, eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: the challenge of sustainable adjustments in the eurozone

Author

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  • Vincent Duwicquet

    () (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jacques Mazier

    () (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jamel Saadaoui

    () (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg)

Abstract

The euro zone crisis illustrates the deficiencies of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, they are very few alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole euro zone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro is strongly overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially Germany. The paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the euro zone, using a FEER approach, and examines the evolution of competitiveness. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and eurobonds issuance. Three main results are obtained. Facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to exchange rates misalignments, increasing intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribute to reduce the debt burden and induce a partial recovery but public debt would increase. Implementation of eurobonds as a tool to partly mutualize European sovereign debt would have a rather similar positive impact, but with a public debt limited to 60% of GDP. Furthermore, eurobonds could also be used to finance large European projects which could impulse a stronger recovery in the entire euro zone with stabilized current account imbalances. However, the settlement of a European Debt Agency in charge of the issuance of the eurobonds would face strong political obstacles.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2014. "Interest rates, eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: the challenge of sustainable adjustments in the eurozone," CEPN Working Papers halshs-01089208, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:halshs-01089208
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01089208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution. Comment s'ajuster en union monétaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 57-96.
    2. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
    3. Jacques Mazier & Sophie Saglio, 2008. "Interdependency and adjustments in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 17-44.
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    5. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier, 2010. "Financial integration and macroeconomic adjustments in a monetary union," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 333-370, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2018. "Dealing with the consequences of exchange rate misalignments for macroeconomic adjustments in the EMU," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 737-767, November.
    2. Duwicquet, Vincent & Mazier, Jacques & Petit, Pascal & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "The future of the euro," MPRA Paper 67690, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Crisis; Exchange Rate Misalignments; Eurobonds; Interest Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

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