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La valeur du yuan. Les paradoxes du taux de change d'équilibre

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  • Antoine Bouveret
  • Sana Mestiri
  • Henri Sterdyniak

Abstract

Using equilibrium exchange rate models (PPP, BEER and FEER), many authors have concluded that the renminbi is undervalued by 15 to 30% against the dollar, but they implicitly assume that the economy is at full-employment, a debatable hypothesis for developing economies such as China, whose unemployed amount to 150 millions people. On the contrary, we consider that China is facing massive unemployment; if investment depends on expected potential demand (from domestic consumption and foreign demand), then an undervalued exchange rate (by traditional standards) is required for its policy objectives. Therefore the exchange rate can be analyzed as a policy tool used by the Chinese authorities to pursue their growth strategy. Equilibrium exchange rate theories are not suited for developing countries. For growth and stability, a managed exchange rate regime seems better that a floating one. JEL Codes: F31, F42, O24.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "La valeur du yuan. Les paradoxes du taux de change d'équilibre," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 98(3), pages 77-127.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_098_127
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    Cited by:

    1. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4777 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
      [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
      ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudre, 2007. "On the Contingency of Equilibrium Exchange Rates with Time - Consistent Economic Policies," Sciences Po publications 2007-08, Sciences Po.
    5. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2009. "La globalisation financière en crise," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 13-73.
    6. Zaiter Lahimer, Mahjouba, 2011. "L’impact des entrées de capitaux privés sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/7670 edited by Sterdyniak, Henri.
    7. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and World Imbalances: a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Post-Print halshs-00484808, HAL.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6125 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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