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A twelve-area model for the equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US dollar nominal exchange rate

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  • You, Kefei
  • Sarantis, Nicholas

Abstract

This paper investigates the equilibrium CNY/USD nominal exchange rate during 1976–2008. We extend for the first time the five-area FABEER model to a twelve-area TABEER model for China. All parameters are estimated with allowance for endogenous structural breaks. Our investigation of the sustainable current account highlights macroeconomic factors that determine savings and investment in the medium-term. We find that all cointegration relationships are subject to structural breaks. The equilibrium nominal rate was overvalued in most years from early 1990s until 2003. It has been strongly undervalued during 2004–2008. We further compute misalignment rates using a sustainable current account of 3%. Our findings suggest such exogenous input leads to results biased towards larger undervaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "A twelve-area model for the equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US dollar nominal exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 151-170.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:1:p:151-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2011.08.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Kefei You, 2016. "Exchange Rate Linkages between the ASEAN Currencies, the US Dollar and the Chinese RMB," CESifo Working Paper Series 5995, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Rughoo, Aarti & You, Kefei, 2016. "Asian financial integration: Global or regional? Evidence from money and bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 419-434.
    3. Pontines, Victor & You, Kefei, 2015. "Asian Currency Unit (ACU), deviation indicators and exchange rate coordination in East Asia: A panel-based convergence approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 42-55.
    4. You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1146-1163.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate; TABEER model; Nominal CNY/USD; Structural breaks; China;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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