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Long-Term Capital Movements

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  • Lane, Philip R.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria

Abstract

International financial integration allows countries to become net creditors or net debtors with respect to the rest of the world. In this Paper, we show that a small set of fundamentals shifts in relative output levels, the stock of public debt and demographic factors can do much to explain the evolution of net foreign asset positions. In addition, we highlight that ‘external wealth’ plays a critical role in determining the behavior of the trade balance, both through shifts in the desired net foreign asset position and the investment returns generated on the outstanding stock of net foreign assets. Finally, we provide some evidence that a portfolio balance effect exists: real interest rate differentials are inversely related to net foreign asset positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," CEPR Discussion Papers 2873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2873
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; net foreign assets; portfolio balance; trade balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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