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What drives long-term capital flows A theoretical and empirical investigation

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  • Verdier, Genevieve

Abstract

What drives capital inflows in the long run? Do they follow the predictions of neoclassical theory, or are other forces at work? The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how long-term capital movements conform surprisingly well to the predictions of a simple neoclassical model with credit constraints. The most surprising prediction of this class of models is that, contrary to a pure neoclassical model, domestic savings should act as a complement rather than a substitute to capital inflows. Nevertheless, this class of models keeps the neoclassical prediction that, ceteris paribus, capital should flow to the countries where it is most scarce. Using data on net foreign liabilities over the 1970 to 1997 period, I find evidence that supports these predictions.
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  • Verdier, Genevieve, 2008. "What drives long-term capital flows A theoretical and empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 120-142, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:74:y:2008:i:1:p:120-142
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    4. Gilad Aharonovitz & James Miller, 2008. "Are Net FDI Flows and Reversals of Capital Flows a Result of Output Growth?," Working Papers 2009-05, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    5. Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Fuhmei Wang, 2009. "The effects of foreign borrowing policies on economic growth: success or failure?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 273-284.
    7. Aharonovitz Gilad D & Miller James D, 2010. "Are Net FDI Flows and Reversals of Capital Flows a Result of Output Growth?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, August.
    8. Bélyácz, Iván & Kuti, Mónika, 2009. "Külföldi működőtőke és külső eladósodás. Kísérlet a makrogazdasági tőkestruktúra új szempontú vizsgálatára [Foreign operating capital and foreign indebtedness. An attempt to examine macroeconomic c," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 133-154.
    9. Arazmuradov, Annageldy & Martini, Gianmaria & Scotti, Davide, 2014. "Determinants of total factor productivity in former Soviet Union economies: A stochastic frontier approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 115-135.
    10. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "La these de Feldstein-Horioka: une mesure de la mobilité internationale du capital," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(1), pages 53-67, March.
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    12. Arias, Fernando & Parra-Amado, Daniel & Garrido, Daira, 2013. "¿Responden los diferentes tipos de flujos de capitales a los mismos fundamentos y en el mismo grado? : evidencia reciente para países emergentes," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 2, pages 53-81, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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