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¿Responden los diferentes tipos de flujos de capitales a los mismos fundamentos y en el mismo grado? Evidencia reciente para países emergentes

  • Fernando Arias

    ()

  • Daira Garrido

    ()

  • Daniel Parra

    ()

  • Hernán Rincón

    ()

La crisis internacional al final de la década anterior produjo cambios importantes en el grado, tamaño y volatilidad de los flujos de capitales hacia los países emergentes, lo que se ha convertido en un reto para sus autoridades económicas, por los posibles efectos negativos que estos podrían tener sobre variables macroeconómicas de primer interés como la tasa de cambio, la estabilidad macroeconómica y financiera y el crecimiento. Esto condujo a que la literatura, y en particular a las autoridades, se interesaran de nuevo por analizar el comportamiento de los flujos de capital y sus fundamentales. El objetivo es estimar un modelo de flujos de capitales para una muestra de países emergentes y evaluar sus determinantes; en particular, se analiza si los distintos tipos de flujos de capitales responden a los mismos fundamentos y en el mismo grado, y si respondieron de la misma manera a lo largo de la crisis. Los resultados sugieren que los tradicionales factores de atracción y de expulsión siguen jugando un papel central en los movimientos de capitales, aunque su importancia difiere dependiendo del tipo de flujo. Adicionalmente, se encontró que la crisis parece haber causado un cambio estructural en la relación entre los flujos de capital y sus fundamentos.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 009764.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2012
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009764
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