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The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows

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  • Davis, J. Scott

Abstract

This paper considers whether debt-based capital inflows have different effects on many short-run macroeconomic indicators than equity-based capital inflows. Using external instruments in a structural VAR for identification, we estimate the response of domestic variables like the output gap, inflation, the exchange rate, stock prices, credit growth, and interest rates to an exogenous shock to debt- or equity-based capital inflows. An exogenous increase in debt inflows leads to a significant increase in the output gap, inflation, stock prices and credit growth and an appreciation of the exchange rate. An exogenous increase in equity-based capital inflows has almost no effect on the same variables. Thus the short-run macroeconomic effects of exogenous capital inflows are almost entirely due to changes in debt, not equity-based, capital inflows.

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  • Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:81-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.07.006
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    2. J. Scott Davis, 2016. "Economic fundamentals and monetary policy autonomy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2017. "The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(6), pages 895-910, November.
    4. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    5. Igan, Deniz & Kutan, Ali M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2020. "The real effects of capital inflows in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Jonathan Scott Davis, 2017. "External debt and monetary policy autonomy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 35(82), pages 53-63, April.
    7. Alimov, Behzod, 2022. "The dynamic effects of debt and equity inflows: Evidence from emerging and developing countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    8. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 2001. "The Real Effects of Capital Inflows on Emerging Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 165-202.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital inflows; Debt; Equity; Macroeconomic effects; External instruments in a structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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