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Real Estate Valuation, Current Account and Credit Growth Patterns, Before and After the 2008-9 Crisis

  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yothin Jinjarak

We explore the stability of the conditioning variables accounting for the real estate valuation before and after the crisis of 2008-9, in a panel of 36 countries, recognizing the crisis break. We validate the robustness of the association between the real estate valuation and lagged current account patterns, both before and after the crisis. The most economically significant variable in accounting for real estate valuation changes turned out to be the lagged real estate valuation appreciation (real estate inflation minus CPI inflation), followed by lagged declines of the current account/GDP, lagged domestic credit/GDP growth, and lagged equity market valuation appreciation (equity market appreciation minus CPI inflation). A one standard deviation increase in lagged real estate appreciation is associated with a 10 % increase in the present real estate appreciation, larger than the impact of a one standard deviation deterioration in the lagged current account/GDP (5%) and of the lagged domestic credit/GDP growth (3%). The results are supportive of both current account and credit growth channels, with the momentum channels playing the most important role. Smaller current account/GDP surpluses or larger deficits may serve as warning signals, especially when coinciding with credit expansion and real estate appreciation during the past several quarters.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19190.

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Date of creation: Jun 2013
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Publication status: published as Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Real estate valuation, current account and credit growth patterns, before and after the 2008–9 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 249-270.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19190
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  1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," NBER Working Papers 18400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1rh4s127, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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  14. Andrea Ferrero, 2011. "House Prices Booms and Current Account Deficits," 2011 Meeting Papers 1386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1876, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Carroll, Christopher D. & Otsuka, Misuzu & Slacalek, Jiri, 2010. "How large are housing and financial wealth effects? A new approach," Working Paper Series 1283, European Central Bank.
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  19. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
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