IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics

  • University of Chicago
  • Pedro Gete

I model global imbalances as arising from changes in preferences for housing relative to tradable goods. The key ingredients in the model are labor reallocation across sectors and consumption smoothing between housing and tradable goods. Countries import goods during periods when more domestic labor is devoted to housing construction. Housing booms are larger in countries that can run trade deficits. This occurs despite the absence of wealth effects, and even if trade is not primarily concentrated in capital goods. I provide several types of evidence to support the theory. First, over the last decade housing variables have decoupled from the business cycle while durable and total consumption expenditures have not. Second, for the same period there has been a strong cross-country correlation between housing variables and current account dynamics. Third, in a parameterized version of the model, housing demand shocks that match the cross-country dynamics of housing quantities generate current account dynamics matching recent global imbalances. Fourth, I use sign restrictions implied by the model to estimate a vector autoregression and identify the effects of housing shocks on the U.S. trade deficit. The results suggest that housing shocks are an important driving force of current account dynamics.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2009/paper_427.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2009 Meeting Papers with number 427.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:427
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Fax: 1-314-444-8731
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Joseph Gruber & Steven Kamin, 2009. "Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 667-688, 09.
  2. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267- 334.
  4. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis," NBER Working Papers 18082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Felipe Meza & Carlos Urrutia, 2010. "Financial Liberalization, Structural Change, and Real Exchange Rate Appreciations," IMF Working Papers 10/63, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Buiter, Willem H., 2008. "Housing Wealth isn't Wealth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6920, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Mark Doms & John Krainer, 2007. "Innovations in mortgage markets and increased spending on housing," Working Paper Series 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
  9. Annamaria Lusardi & Daniel Schneider & Peter Tufano, 2011. "Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 83-150.
  10. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  11. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing, 2013. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Working Paper Series 2013-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House prices and credit constraints: making sense of the U.S. experience," Working Papers 1103, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  13. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F.Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2007. " Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0705, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  15. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2013. "Real Estate Valuation, Current Account and Credit Growth Patterns, Before and After the 2008-9 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 19190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. pengfei Wang & Tao Zha & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2012 Meeting Papers 85, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-11, May.
  18. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2006. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Working Paper Series 0705, European Central Bank.
  19. David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 354-374, 05.
  20. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  21. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1990. "Residential investment and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 137-153, February.
  22. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-93, March.
  23. Morris A. Davis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2014. "Housing, Finance and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 20287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
  25. Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Asset Prices, News Shocks, and the Trade Balance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1211-1251, October.
  26. Ing-Haw Cheng & Sahil Raina & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Wall Street and the Housing Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2797-2829, September.
  27. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2010. "Winners and Losers in House Markets," Working Papers 2010-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  29. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2012. "Understanding booms and busts in housing markets," CQER Working Paper 2012-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  30. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Jonathan Heathcote, 2003. "Housing and the Business Cycle," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-21, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  33. Gete, Pedro, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," MPRA Paper 20957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Feb 2010.
  34. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US imbalances: The role of technology and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 523-545, June.
  35. Kuang, Pei, 2014. "A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 419-437.
  36. Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "The "Great Moderation" and the US External Imbalance," NBER Working Papers 12708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Åsa Johansson, 2011. "The Price Responsiveness of Housing Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 837, OECD Publishing.
  38. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," NBER Working Papers 14768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
  40. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2010. "The drivers of housing cycles in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-130, March.
  41. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
  42. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, 03.
  43. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 40-74, March.
  44. Bian, Timothy Yang & Gete, Pedro, 2014. "What drives housing dynamics in China? a sign restrictions VAR approach," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 193, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  45. Carin van der Cruijsen & David-Jan Jansen & Maarten van Rooij, 2014. "The rose-colored glasses of homeowners," DNB Working Papers 421, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  46. Kaplan, Greg & Violante, Giovanni L, 2011. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8562, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "The Mathematical Appendix to Residential Investment and the Current Account," Discussion Papers 875, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  48. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
  49. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  50. Yongqiang Chu, 2014. "Credit constraints, inelastic supply, and the housing boom," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 52-69, January.
  51. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  52. Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with durable consumption goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1341-1359, October.
  53. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Housing market and current account imbalances in the international economy," Research Discussion Papers 1/2012, Bank of Finland.
  54. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
  55. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2004. "Investment Prices and Exchange Rates: Some Basic Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4290, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  57. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 69, Society for Computational Economics.
  58. Morris A. Davis & Andreas Lehnert & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "The Rent-Price Ratio For The Aggregate Stock Of Owner-Occupied Housing," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(2), pages 279-284, 06.
  59. Martin Boileau & Michel Normandin, 2005. "Closing International Real Business Cycle Models with Restricted Financial Markets," Cahiers de recherche 0506, CIRPEE.
  60. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," NBER Working Papers 18400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1876, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  62. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan.
  63. Broer, Tobias, 2014. "Domestic or global imbalances? Rising income risk and the fall in the US current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 47-67.
  64. Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 235-299 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "Current Account Patterns and National Real Estate Markets," NBER Working Papers 13921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Tesar, Linda L., 1993. "International risk-sharing and non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 69-89, August.
  67. Masanori Kashiwagi, 2014. "Sunspots and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs in the U.S. Housing Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 654-676, October.
  68. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  69. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 12766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed009:427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.