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International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market

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  • Tomura, Hajime

Abstract

This paper analyzes the roles of credit market conditions in endogenous formation of housing-market boom-bust cycles in a business cycle model. When households are uncertain about the duration of a temporary high income growth period, expected future house prices rise during the high growth period and fall at the end of the period. But this development causes expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in current house prices only if the economy is open to international capital flows. It is also shown that high maximum loan-to-value ratios for residential mortgages per se do not cause boom-bust cycles without international capital flows in the model.

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  • Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:10:p:1993-2009
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    Cited by:

    1. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    2. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    3. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Caterina Mendicino & Sandra Gomes, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Xiaojin Sun, 2020. "Housing market spillovers in South Africa: evidence from an estimated small open economy DSGE model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2309-2332, May.
    6. Hwee Kwan Chow & Taojun Xie, 2016. "Are House Prices Driven by Capital Flows? Evidence from Singapore," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Sean Joss Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2012. "The effects of capital inflows on South Africa's economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 923-938, June.
    8. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Alper, Koray & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2018. "External shocks, financial volatility and reserve requirements in an open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
    9. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Pengfei Jia, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy Coordination in a Currency Union'," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 235, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Real estate valuation, current account and credit growth patterns, before and after the 2008–9 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 249-270.
    11. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jia, Pengfei, 2020. "Capital controls and welfare with cross-border bank capital flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Weida Kuang & Changyu Chen & Qilin Wang, 2020. "Home purchase restriction, real estate investment, and corporate innovation," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
    14. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2014. "The Housing Sector over Business Cycles: Empirical Analysis and DSGE Modelling," Working Papers 2014/12, Czech National Bank.
    15. Ng, Eric C.Y. & Feng, Ning, 2016. "Housing market dynamics in a small open economy: Do external and news shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 64-88.
    16. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2014. "The Czech Housing Market Through the Lens of a DSGE Model Containing Collateral-Constrained Households," Working Papers 2014/09, Czech National Bank.
    17. Akbar, Delwar & Rolfe, John & Kabir, S.M. Zobaidul, 2013. "Predicting impacts of major projects on housing prices in resource based towns with a case study application to Gladstone, Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 481-489.
    18. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "Real Estate Valuation, Current Account, and Credit Growth Patterns Before and After the 2008–2009 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 429, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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