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Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data

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  • Lambertini, Luisa
  • Mendicino, Caterina
  • Punzi, Maria Teresa

Abstract

Using a vector-autoregression (VAR) model and data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we provide evidence on the importance of news and consumers’ beliefs for housing-market dynamics and aggregate fluctuations. We document that innovations to News on Business Conditions generate hump-shaped responses in house prices and other macroeconomic variables. We also show that innovations to Expectations of Rising House Prices are particularly important in explaining the path of macroeconomic variables during housing booms. To disentangle the effects of News on Business Conditions from other sources of expectation-driven cycles, we estimate a VAR where the News variable is ordered first. Innovations to News on Business Conditions generate Expectations of Rising House Prices. However, during housing booms, innovations to Expectations of Rising House Prices unrelated to News on Business Conditions account for a large part of macroeconomic fluctuations. Shocks to News and Expectations account together for more than half of the forecast error variance of house prices, and other macroeconomic variables, during periods of booms in house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:9:y:2013:i:4:p:518-529 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2013.07.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    2. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    3. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 128-151.
    4. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2017. "Households’ Mortgage-Rate Expectations: More Realistic than at First Glance?," Working Papers 2017:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    7. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aime Nono, 2016. "Using Confidence Data to Forecast the Canadian Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 1606, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    8. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 332-351.
    9. Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2015. "Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom," IMF Working Papers 15/182, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2013. "Confidence and economic activity: the case of Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Boom–bust cycles; Credit frictions; Housing market;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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