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Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy

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  • William Gatt

    (Central Bank of Malta)

Abstract

Macroprudential policy is pre-emptive, aimed at preventing crises. Empirical evidence hints at the existence of asymmetric policy in booms and recessions. This paper uses a New Keynesian model with a financial friction on mortgage borrowing and collateral to show what implications this asymmetry might have on the economy. The main source of fluctuations is a bubble in the housing market, which causes house prices and credit to deviate from their fundamental values, leading to a boom and bust cycle. The main macroprudential tool is the regulatory loan to value (LTV) ratio. The author finds that while the asymmetric policy dampens the boom phase, it introduces more volatility in the economy by exacerbating the correction that follows. The higher the asymmetry in the policy response, the more volatile the economy is relative to one in which policy reacts symmetrically.

Suggested Citation

  • William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlt:wpaper:0218
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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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