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A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

Author

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  • Zheng Liu
  • Pengfei Wang
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

Aggregate housing demand shocks are an important source of house price fluctuations in the standard macroeconomic models, and through the collateral channel, they drive macroeconomic fluctuations. These reduced-form shocks, however, fail to generate a highly volatile price-to-rent ratio that comoves with the house price observed in the data (the ?price-rent puzzle?). We build a tractable heterogeneous-agent model that provides a microeconomic foundation for housing demand shocks. The model predicts that a credit supply shock can generate large comovements between the house price and the price-to-rent ratio. We provide empirical evidence from cross-country and cross-MSA data to support this theoretical prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2019. "A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks," Working Paper Series 2019-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2019-09
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2019-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    2. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    3. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-10-23 19:41:14

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    Cited by:

    1. J. Scott Davis & Kevin X. D. Huang & Ayse Sapci, 2020. "Imperfect substitution in real estate markets and the effect of housing demand on corporate investment," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 20-00002, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    2. J. Scott Davis & Kevin X. D. Huang & Ayse Sapci, 2020. "Land Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Imperfect Substitution in Real Estate Markets," Globalization Institute Working Papers 401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 18 May 2021.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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