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Natural Expectations and Home Equity Extraction

Author

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  • Roberto Pancrazi

    (University of Warwick)

  • Mario Pietrunti

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

In this paper we show that long-run expectations about future housing prices of both households and, especially, financial intermediaries had a large impact on households' indebtedness during the recent boom in U.S. housing prices. We introduce the theory of natural expectations in a collateralized credit market model populated by households and banks and find: (1) that mild variations in long-run forecasts of housing prices result in large differences in the amount of home equity extracted during the boom; and (2) that the equilibrium level of debt and the interest rate are particularly sensitive to financial intermediaries' naturalness.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Pancrazi & Mario Pietrunti, 2014. "Natural Expectations and Home Equity Extraction," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 984, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_984_14
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    4. Concetta Rondinelli & Roberta Zizza, 2020. "Spend today or spend tomorrow? The role of inflation expectations in consumer behaviour," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1276, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural expectations; home equity extraction; consumption/saving decision; housing price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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