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Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel L. Greenwald
  • Adam Guren

Abstract

Did credit drive the 2000s housing cycle? The existing literature's findings range from credit having no effect to credit explaining most of the cycle. We show that these disparate results hinge on the extent to which landlords absorb credit-driven demand, which depends on the degree of housing market segmentation. We develop a model that nests cases between the extremes of no segmentation and perfect segmentation typically considered, estimate an elasticity that pins down the degree of segmentation, and use it to calibrate our model. We find credit standards played an important role, explaining 32 percent to 53 percent of the boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Greenwald & Adam Guren, 2025. "Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(10), pages 3559-3596, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:10:p:3559-96
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211715
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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