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The Phillips Multiplier

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  • Barnichon, Régis
  • Mesters, Geert

Abstract

We propose a model-free approach for determining the inflation-unemployment trade-off faced by a central bank, i.e., the ability of a central bank to transform unemployment into inflation (and vice versa) via its interest rate policy. We introduce the Phillips multiplier as a statistic to non-parametrically characterize the trade-off and its dynamic nature. We compute the Phillips multiplier for the US, UK and Canada and document that the trade-off went from being very large in the pre-1990 sample period to being small (but significant) post-1990 with the onset of inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnichon, Régis & Mesters, Geert, 2019. "The Phillips Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 13480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13480
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2019. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 26039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Multiplier; Inflation-Unemployment trade-off; instrumental variables; Marginal Rate of Transformation; Phillips curve;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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