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Unsurprising shocks: information, premia, and the monetary transmission

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  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

Central banks’ decisions are a function of forecasts of macroeconomic fundamentals. Because private sector forecasts are not bound to be equal to central banks’ forecasts, what markets label as unexpected may or may not be unanticipated by the central bank. Monetary surprises can thus incorporate anticipatory effects if market participants fail to correctly account for the systematic component of policy when they are surprised by an interest rate decision. Depending on how market participants perceive the policy decision, their economic projections and the associated risk compensations move in opposite directions, and do so at the time of the announcement. Hence, and regardless of the width of the measurement window, monetary surprises capture more than just the monetary policy shock, and their use as external instruments for identification is potentially compromised. Monetary ‘surprises’ are dependent on, and shown to be predictable by both central banks’ forecasts and past information available to market participants prior to the announcement. A New-Keynesian framework sketches the intuition. The resulting distortions in the estimated impulse response functions can be dramatic, both qualitatively and quantitatively. A new set of monetary surprises, free of anticipatory effects and unpredictable by past information, are shown to retrieve transmission coefficients to a monetary policy shock consistent with macroeconomic theory even in informationally deficient VARs.

Suggested Citation

  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2016. "Unsurprising shocks: information, premia, and the monetary transmission," Bank of England working papers 626, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2017. "Same, but different: Testing monetary policy shock measures," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Gregory Thwaites & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 1612, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2016.
    4. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2016. "Federal Reserve Private Information and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 77608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2015. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Papers 1711, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Feb 2017.
    6. repec:oup:jeurec:v:15:y:2017:i:4:p:721-745. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Momentum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6648, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Benjamin Garcia & Arsenios Skaperdas, "undated". "Inferring the Shadow Rate from Real Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," NBER Working Papers 23651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Paul, Pascal, 2017. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Paper Series 2017-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 02 Jan 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary surprises; identification with external instruments; monetary policy; expectations; information asymmetries; event study; proxy SVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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