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Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

Author

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  • Carlo Altavilla

    (European Central Bank and CSEF)

  • Domenico Giannone

    (LUISS University of Rome, ECARES, EIEF and CEPR)

  • Michele Modugno

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

We analyze the reaction of the U.S. Treasury bond market to innovations in macroe-economic fundamentals. We identify these innovations based on macroeconomic news, which are defined as differences between the actual releases and market expectations. We find that that macroeconomic news explain about one-third of the low frequency (quarterly) fluctuations in long-term bond yields. When we focus on the high frequency (daily) movements, this decrease to one-tenth. This is because macroeconomic news have a persistent effect on bond yields, whereas non-fundamental factors have substantial effects on the day-to-day movements of bond yields, although their effects are shorter lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," CSEF Working Papers 372, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:372
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    Cited by:

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    3. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
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    5. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Guerino Ardizzi & Simone Emiliozzi & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "News and consumer card payments," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1233, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2018. "Macro news and bond yield spreads in the euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 114-134, January.
    9. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    10. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2020. "A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations," Working Papers 20-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Caruso, Alberto, 2019. "Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1725-1734.
    12. Guido Bulligan & Davide Delle Monache, 2018. "Financial markets effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy announcements," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 424, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Urga, Giovanni, 2016. "Jumps and Information Asymmetry in the US Treasury Market," EconStor Preprints 130148, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Schlepper, Kathi, 2016. "High-frequency trading in the Bund futures market," Discussion Papers 15/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Rasmus Fatum & Naoko Hara & Yohei Yamamoto, 2019. "Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    16. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & McLaren, Nick, 2015. "How much do UK market interest rates respond to macroeconomic data news?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(3), pages 259-272.
    17. Bruno Feunou & Rodrigo Sekkel & Morvan Nongni Donfack, 2018. "Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-38, Bank of Canada.
    18. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    19. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    20. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Wildmer Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Has the Grexit news spilled over into euro area financial markets? The role of domestic political leaders, supranational executives and institutions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 134, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    21. Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Sacchi, Agnese, 2019. "Has the Grexit news affected euro area financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-84.
    22. Luca Brugnolini & Antonello D’Agostino & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Is Anything Predictable in Market-Based Surprises?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(3), pages 387-410, November.
    23. Sreejata Banerjee & Divya Sinha, 2015. "Effect of Macroeconomic News Releases on Bond Yields in India China and Japan," Working Papers 2015-125, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    24. Alberto Caruso, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic announcement; news; treasury bond yield;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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