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The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target

Listed author(s):
  • Lars E.O. Svensson

If inflation expectations become firmly anchored at the inflation target even when average inflation deviates from the target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes non-vertical. During 1997-2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have been close to the inflation target of 2 percent, whereas average inflation has fallen short of the target by 0.6 percentage points. The estimates reported suggest that the slope of the long-run Phillips curve is about 0.75. Then the average unemployment rate has been about 0.8 percentage points higher than if average inflation had been on target. This is a large unemployment cost of undershooting the inflation target.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19442.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19442.

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Date of creation: Sep 2013
Publication status: published as The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target , Lars E. O. Svensson. in Lessons from the Financial Crisis for Monetary Policy , Gertler. 2015
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19442
Note: IFM ME
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  1. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Forecast-Based Monetary Policy: The Case of Sweden," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 349-380, Winter.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  3. Thomas Jonsson & Pär Österholm, 2012. "The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 79-94, February.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Laseen, 2009. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," 2009 Meeting Papers 788, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
  6. Lars E O Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  7. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nessen, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2005. "Average Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 837-863, October.
  9. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
  10. Assar Lindbeck & Dennis J. Snower, 2001. "Insiders versus Outsiders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 165-188, Winter.
  11. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. " Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
  12. Per Lundborg & Hans Sacklén, 2006. "Low-inflation Targeting and Long-run Unemployment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(3), pages 397-418, October.
  13. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2005. "Monetary policy with judgment: forecast targeting," Working Paper Series 476, European Central Bank.
  14. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 145-185, September.
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