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Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting

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  • Svensson, Lars E.O.

Abstract

My lessons from six years of practical policy-making include (1) being clear about and not deviating from the mandate of flexible inflation targeting (price stability and the highest sustainable employment), including keeping average inflation over a longer period on target; (2) not adding household debt as a new (intermediate) target variable, in addition to inflation and unemployment ? not ?leaning against the wind,? which is counterproductive, but leaving any problems with household debt to financial policy; (3) using a two-step algorithm to implement ?forecast targeting?; (4) using four-panel graphs to evaluate monetary policy ex ante (in real time) and ex post (after the fact); (5) taking a credible inflation target and a resulting downward-sloping Phillips curve into account by keeping average inflation over a longer period on target; and (6) not confusing monetary and financial policy but using monetary policy to achieve the monetary-policy objectives and financial policy to maintain financial stability, with each policy taking into account the conduct of the other.

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  • Svensson, Lars E.O., 2013. "Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9756
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    16. Stefan Laséen & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2009. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," NBER Working Papers 14902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. John C. Williams, 2015. "Macroprudential policy in a microprudential world," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 133-193, February.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2013. "Is monetary policy overburdened?," IMFS Working Paper Series 75, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Arias, Jonas E. & Erceg, Christopher & Trabandt, Mathias, 2016. "The macroeconomic risks of undesirably low inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 88-107.
    5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2014. "Forward Guidance," NBER Working Papers 20796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2018. "Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Different and separate?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 802-827, August.
    7. Adigozalov, Shaig & Huseynov, Salman, 2015. "İnflyasiya hədəflənməsinin əməliyyat çərçivəsi: ölkə təcrübələri AMB üçün nə vəd edir? [Operational framework of Inflation Targeting: what promises do country experiences make to the CBAR?]," MPRA Paper 76349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15 [More confidence in market processes. Annual Report 2014/15]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.
    9. Byrne, David & Kelly, Robert, 2019. "Monetary policy expectations and risk-taking among U.S. banks," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Magda Ciżkowicz-Pękała & Witold Grostal & Joanna Niedźwiedzińska & Elżbieta Skrzeszewska-Paczek & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska & Grzegorz Wesołowski & Piotr Żuk, 2019. "Three decades of inflation targeting," NBP Working Papers 314, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    11. Uwe Vollmer, 2022. "Monetary policy or macroprudential policies: What can tame the cycles?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1510-1538, December.
    12. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    13. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2014. "How to Weigh Unemployment Relative to Inflation in Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 183-188, October.
    14. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2018. "La relación entre política monetaria y política de estabilización financiera," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 082-106, August.
    15. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    16. Jaromir Baxa & Jan Zacek, 2022. "Monetary Policy and the Financial Cycle: International Evidence," Working Papers 2022/4, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    17. John C. Williams, 2014. "Inflation targeting and the global financial crisis: successes and challenges," Speech 134, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Lori Rennison, 2015. "Forward Guidance at the Effective Lower Bound: International Experience," Discussion Papers 15-15, Bank of Canada.
    19. Tobal, Martin & Menna, Lorenzo, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    20. John C. Williams, 2014. "Financial stability and monetary policy: happy marriage or untenable union?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Mr. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2016. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind: Are Costs Larger Also with Less Effective Macroprudential Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2016/003, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.
    23. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2015. "The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 258-296, January.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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