IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v46y2014is2p3-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • CHRISTOPHER J. ERCEG
  • ANDREW T. LEVIN

Abstract

This paper provides compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post‐2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR). We then formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which the LFPR is practically acyclical during “normal times” but drops markedly following a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. These considerations have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially when interest rate adjustments are constrained by the zero lower bound; specifically, monetary policy can induce a more rapid recovery of the LFPR by allowing the unemployment rate to fall below its natural rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:s2:p:3-49
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12151
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12151?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    2. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-1187, December.
    3. Greg Howard & Robert F. Martin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2011. "Are recoveries from banking and financial crises really so different?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Avichai Snir & Daniel Levy, 2011. "Shrinking Goods and Sticky Prices: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2011-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    5. Balk,Bert M., 2012. "Price and Quantity Index Numbers," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107404960, September.
    6. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Christopher Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2014. "Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-107, February.
    8. Kevin J. Fox & Daniel Melser, 2014. "Non-Linear Pricing and Price Indexes: Evidence and Implications from Scanner Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(2), pages 261-278, June.
    9. Chinhui Juhn, 1992. "Decline of Male Labor Market Participation: The Role of Declining Market Opportunities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 79-121.
    10. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    11. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Effects of extended unemployment insurance benefits: evidence from the monthly CPS," Working Papers 10-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    13. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1188-1214, December.
    14. Veracierto, Marcelo, 2008. "On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1143-1157, September.
    15. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2008. "Monetary conservatism and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1376-1388, November.
    16. IMAI Satoshi & SHIMIZU Chihiro & WATANABE Tsutomu, 2012. "How Fast Are Prices in Japan Falling?," Discussion papers 12075, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1991. "Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 277-292, August.
    18. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 825-844.
    19. Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Disability Insurance Benefits and Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1162-1183, December.
    20. Robert Shimer, 2008. "The Probability of Finding a Job," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 268-273, May.
    21. Yongsung Chang & Joao F. Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning-by-Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1498-1520, December.
    22. Daniel Aaronson & Jonathan Davis & Luojia Hu, 2012. "Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
    23. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    24. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    25. Satoshi Imai & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2012. "How Fast Are Prices in Japan Falling?," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 001, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Oct 2012.
    26. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 417-434.
    27. Macunovich, Diane J., 2009. "Reversals in the Patterns of Women's Labor Supply in the U.S., 1976-2009," IZA Discussion Papers 4512, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023," Reports 43907, Congressional Budget Office.
    29. John Bound & Timothy Waidmann, 2002. "Accounting for Recent Declines in Employment Rates among Working-Aged Men and Women with Disabilities," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 37(2), pages 231-250.
    30. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2012. "A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2012-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    31. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    32. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q I), pages 5-34.
    33. Marianna Kudlyak & Felipe Schwartzman, 2012. "Accounting for unemployment in the Great Recession : nonparticipation matters," Working Paper 12-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    34. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2006. "The Growth in the Social Security Disability Rolls: A Fiscal Crisis Unfolding," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 71-96, Summer.
    35. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 157-206.
    36. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023," Reports 43907, Congressional Budget Office.
    37. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May.
    38. Bradley T. Heim, 2007. "The Incredible Shrinking Elasticities: Married Female Labor Supply, 1978–2002," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(4).
    39. Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 69-154.
    40. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2008. "Monetary conservatism and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1376-1388, November.
    41. Satoshi Imai & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2012. "How Fast Are Prices in Japan Falling?," CARF F-Series CARF-F-298, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    42. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023," Reports 43907, Congressional Budget Office.
    43. Riccardo DiCecio & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2008. "Changing trends in the labor force: a survey," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jan), pages 47-62.
    44. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2013. "Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 257-275, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    2. Sudipto Banerjee & David Blau, 2016. "Employment Trends by Age in the United States: Why Are Older Workers Different?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 163-199.
    3. Robert A. Moffitt, 2012. "The Reveral of the Employment-Population Ratio in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 201-264.
    4. Satoshi Imai & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 008, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Jun 2013.
    5. Satoshi Imai & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period," CARF F-Series CARF-F-320, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    6. Marianna Kudlyak, 2013. "A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 25-43.
    7. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
    8. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04," Working Papers 53616, Congressional Budget Office.
    9. Satoshi Imai & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 69-89, January.
    10. Fernando Rios-Avila, 2015. "Losing Ground: Demographic Trends in US Labor Force Participation," Economics Policy Note Archive 15-7, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Masao Fukui & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2023. "Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 269-313, January.
    12. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Family Economics Writ Large," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1346-1434, December.
    13. Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2011. "Asymmetric Shocks in a Currency Union with Monetary and Fiscal Handcuffs," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 95-136.
    14. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    16. Christopher Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2014. "Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-107, February.
    17. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q I), pages 5-34.
    18. James B. Bullard, 2014. "The rise and fall of labor force participation in the U.S," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April.
    19. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2023. "Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:s2:p:3-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.