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A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation

Author

Listed:
  • Kudlyak, Marianna

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

Abstract

We estimate a trend in the aggregate labor force participation rate using the age-gender and the birth cohort effects in the labor force participation rates of different demographic groups and the actual demographic composition of the population. We find that, in 2012, the aggregate labor force participation rate is close to its trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Kudlyak, Marianna, 2013. "A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 25-43.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:00002
    as

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    File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2013/q1/pdf/kudlyak.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesse Rothstein, 2011. "Unemployment Insurance and Job Search in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 143-213.
    2. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    3. Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 69-154.
    4. Maria E. Canon & Marianna Kudlyak & Peter Debbaut, 2013. "A closer look at the decline in the labor force participation rate," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue October.
    5. Bruce C. Fallick & Jonathan F. Pingle, 2006. "A cohort-based model of labor force participation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Mark E. Schweitzer & Murat Tasci, 2013. "What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
    7. Daniel Aaronson & Jonathan Davis & Luojia Hu, 2012. "Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
    8. Marianna Kudlyak & Felipe Schwartzman, 2012. "Accounting for unemployment in the Great Recession : nonparticipation matters," Working Paper 12-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    9. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2013. "Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 257-275, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Labor force participation: Is a trend or a cycle at work?
      by ? in FRED blog on 2015-05-07 18:00:36

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bullard, James B., 2014. "The rise and fall of labor force participation in the U.S," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April.
    2. Jeremy W Bray & Brooks Depro & Dorren McMahon & Marion Siegle & Lee Mobley, 2016. "Disconnected Geography: A Spatial Analysis of Disconnected Youth in the United States," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 317-342, September.
    3. Lecznar, Jonathan & Sharp, Robert & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G., 2013. "Characterizing the Unusual Path of U.S. Output During and After the Great Recession," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 163-192.
    4. repec:eso:journl:v:48:y:2017:i:1:p:27-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Brian Micallef, "undated". "Estimating the Impact on potential output of structural reforms to Increase the female participation rate," CBM Policy Papers PP/03/2015, Central Bank of Malta.
    6. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    7. Stephen Byrne & Martin D. O’Brien, 2017. "Understanding Irish Labour Force Participation," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(1), pages 27-60.
    8. Bullard, James B., 2014. "The rise and fall of labor force participation in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 1-12.
    9. repec:rfa:journl:v:6:y:2018:i:8:p:73-84 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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