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House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap

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  • Ferrero, Andrea
  • Harrison, Richard
  • Nelson, Benjamin

Abstract

The inception of macro-prudential policy frameworks in the wake of the global financial crisis raises questions about the effects of the newly available policy tools and their interaction with the existing ones. We study the optimal setting of a loan-to-value (LTV) limit, and its implications for optimal monetary policy, in a model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions. The welfare-based loss function implies a role for macro-prudential policy to enhance risk-sharing. Following a house price boom-bust episode, macro-prudential policy alleviates debt-deleveraging dynamics and prevents the economy from falling into a liquidity trap. In this scenario, optimal policy always entails countercyclical LTV limits, while the response of the nominal interest rate depends on the nature of the underlying shock driving house prices.

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  • Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13400
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    1. Mendicino, Caterina & Nikolov, Kalin & Suarez, Javier & Supera, Dominik, 2020. "Bank capital in the short and in the long run," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 64-79.
    2. Zaretski, Aliaksandr, 2021. "Financial constraints, risk sharing, and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 110757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hinterschweiger, Marc & Khairnar, Kunal & Ozden, Tolga & Stratton, Tom, 2021. "Macroprudential policy interactions in a sectoral DSGE model with staggered interest rates," Bank of England working papers 904, Bank of England.
    4. Yang Zhou & Shigeto Kitano, 2023. "Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation: Which is Better for Land Booms and Busts?," Discussion Paper Series DP2023-12, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    5. Millard, Stephen & Rubio, Margarita & Varadi, Alexandra, 2021. "The macroprudential toolkit: effectiveness and interactions," Bank of England working papers 902, Bank of England.
    6. Forster, Robert & Sun, Xiaojin, 2022. "Taming the housing crisis: An LTV macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Stephen Millard, & Margarita Rubio & Alexandra Varadi, 2020. "The impact of Covid-19 on productivity," Discussion Papers 2020/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).

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    Keywords

    Monetary and macro-prudential policy; Financial crisis; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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