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Business Cycle Implications of Mortgage Spreads

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  • Walentin, Karl

    () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

How do aggregate quantities at the business cycle frequency respond to shocks to the spread between residential mortgage rates and government bonds? Using a structural VAR approach, we find that mortgage spread shocks impact the real economy by both economically and statistically significant magnitudes: a 100 basis point decline in the spread causes a peak increase in consumption, residential investment and GDP by 1.6 percent, 6.2 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. These effects are magnified when the policy rate is held fixed, as was the case in the US during the recent implementation of unconventional monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Walentin, Karl, 2013. "Business Cycle Implications of Mortgage Spreads," Working Paper Series 275, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    2. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    3. Fuster, Andreas & Lo, Stephanie & Willen, Paul S., 2017. "The time-varying price of financial intermediation in the mortgage market," Staff Reports 805, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Aug 2017.
    4. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 128-151.
    5. Kok, Christoffer & Gross, Marco & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "The impact of bank capital on economic activity - evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1888, European Central Bank.
    6. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy), 2016. "Nonlinearities of mortgage spreads over the business cycles," Bank of England working papers 634, Bank of England.
    7. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "International housing markets, unconventional monetary policy and the zero lower bound," FinMaP-Working Papers 58, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    8. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    9. Bougheas, Spiros & Worrall, Tim, 2019. "Portfolio sales and signaling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 182-191.
    10. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
    11. Yoo, Jinhyuk, 2017. "Capital injection to banks versus debt relief to households," IMFS Working Paper Series 111, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    12. repec:psc:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:323-357 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2016. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2016-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2016. "Macro-financial linkages in the Polish economy: combined impulse-response functions in SVAR models," NBP Working Papers 246, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    15. Jari Hännikäinen, 2016. "The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 112-116, February.
    16. Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, financial intermediation, and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 230-257.
    17. Rüth, Sebastian & Bachmann, Rüdiger, 2016. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Effects of Shifts in Loan-to-Value Ratios," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145826, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:125-141 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sources of business cycles; unconventional monetary policy; credit supply; house prices; financial frictions;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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