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Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions

  • Helmut Lütkepohl
  • Anna Staszewska-Bystrova
  • Peter Winker

In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a prespecified coverage level, for the impulse responses at all horizons considered simultaneously. The methods are compared in a simulation experiment and recommendations for empirical work are provided.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.419527.de/dp1292.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1292.

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Length: 28 p.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1292
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  1. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 85, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Staszewska, Anna, 2007. "Representing uncertainty about response paths: The use of heuristic optimisation methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 121-132, September.
  5. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Jae H. Kim, 2004. "Bias-corrected bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 141-154.
  7. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
  8. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-79, April.
  9. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
  10. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
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