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Representing uncertainty about response paths: The use of heuristic optimisation methods

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  • Staszewska, Anna

Abstract

In impulse response analysis the construction of intervals for the response at a particular time is a familiar topic. This paper considers the construction of confidence bands for the path of reponses. It investigates the feasibility of procedures based on heuristic optimisation methods for constructing bootstrap confidence bands and evaluates the coverage properties of these bands for a stylised empirical VEC model
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  • Staszewska, Anna, 2007. "Representing uncertainty about response paths: The use of heuristic optimisation methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 121-132, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2007:i:1:p:121-132
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    1. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    4. John Aldrich & Anna Staszewska, 2007. "The experiment in macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 143-166.
    5. Benkwitz, Alexander & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 2001. "Comparison Of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses Of German Monetary Systems," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 81-100, February.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Bruder & Michael Wolf, 2018. "Balanced Bootstrap Joint Confidence Bands for Structural Impulse Response Functions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 641-664, September.
    2. Schüssler, Rainer & Trede, Mark, 2016. "Constructing minimum-width confidence bands," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 182-185.
    3. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2015. "Comparison of methods for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 782-798.
    4. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Confidence Bands for Impulse Responses: Bonferroni versus Wald," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    6. Daniel Grabowski & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2020. "Skewness-adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals and confidence bands for impulse response functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 5-32, March.
    7. Victor Bystrov, 2014. "A factor-augmented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(6), pages 491-512.
    8. Antoniadis, Anestis & Brossat, Xavier & Cugliari, Jairo & Poggi, Jean-Michel, 2016. "A prediction interval for a function-valued forecast model: Application to load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 939-947.
    9. Gilli, Manfred & Winker, Peter, 2007. "2nd Special Issue on Applications of Optimization Heuristics to Estimation and Modelling Problems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 2-3, September.
    10. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
    11. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
    12. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2009. "Bootstrap Confidence Bands for Forecast Paths," Working Papers 024, COMISEF.
    13. Manfred Gilli & Peter Winker, 2008. "Review of Heuristic Optimization Methods in Econometrics," Working Papers 001, COMISEF.
    14. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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