Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models
The problem of forecasting from vector autoregressive models has attracted considerable attention in the literature. The most popular non-Bayesian approaches use either asymptotic approximations or bootstrapping to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the forecast. The practice in the empirical literature has been to assess the uncertainty of multi‐step forecasts by connecting the intervals constructed for individual forecast periods. This paper proposes a bootstrap method of constructing prediction bands for forecast paths. The bands are constructed from forecast paths obtained in bootstrap replications using an optimization procedure to find the envelope of the most concentrated paths. From extensive Monte Carlo study, it is found that the proposed method provides more accurate assessment of predictive uncertainty from the vector autoregressive model than its competitors. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jae H. Kim, 2004. "Bias-corrected bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 141-154.
- Kim, Jae H, 2001. "Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 117-128, January.
- Staszewska, Anna, 2007.
"Representing uncertainty about response paths: The use of heuristic optimisation methods,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 121-132, September.
- Anna Staszewska, 2006. "Representing Uncertainty about Response Paths: the Use of Heuristic Optimisation Methods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 379, Society for Computational Economics.
- Masarotto, Guido, 1990. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 229-239, July.
- Kim, Jae H, 2002. "Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Autoregressive Models of Unknown or Infinite Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 265-280, July.
- Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267.
- Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
- Clements, Michael P. & Kim, Jae H., 2007. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3580-3594, April.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Kim, Jae H., 1999. "Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 393-403, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:8:p:721-735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.