Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts
This paper investigates the problem of constructing prediction regions for forecast trajectories 1 to H periods into the future - a path forecast. We take the more general view that the null model is only approximative and in some cases it may be altogether unavailable. As a consequence, one cannot derive the usual analytic expressions nor resample from the null model as is usually done when bootstrap methods are used. The paper derives methods to construct approximate rectangular regions for simultaneous probability coverage which correct for serial correlation. The techniques appear to work well in simulations and in an application to the Greenbook path-forecasts of growth and inflation.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (415) 974-2000
Fax: (415) 974-3333
Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001.
"Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
501, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2005. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 49-60, January.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997.
"Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?,"
9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
- Kim, Jae H., 1999. "Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 393-403, October.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521632423 is not listed on IDEAS
- Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008.
"Path Forecast Evaluation,"
85, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Masarotto, Guido, 1990. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 229-239, July.
- Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
- Lorenzo Pascual & Juan Romo & Esther Ruiz, 2004. "Bootstrap predictive inference for ARIMA processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 449-465, 07.
- Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
- Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2012-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.