A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts
This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts. In the past, evaluations have focused on the forecasts of individual variables. However, many macroeconomic variables are forecast at the same time and are used together to describe the state of the economy. It is, therefore, appropriate to examine those forecasts jointly. This specific approach is based on the Sinclair and Stekler (forthcoming) analysis of data revisions. The main contributions of this paper are (1) the application of this technique to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and (2) showing that there is a bias that is associated with the stages of the business cycle.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Forecast disagreement among FOMC members," Working Papers 2009-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, .
"Evaluating Density Forecasts,"
CARESS Working Papres
97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating density forecasts," Working Papers 97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," NBER Technical Working Papers 0215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tara Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & L. Kitzinger, 2010. "Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2289-2297.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012.
"Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts,"
2012-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009.
"Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?,"
2009-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2010.
- Baghestani, Hamid, 2006. "An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 177-191.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid, 2008.
"Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation,"
2008-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2011.
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie, 1987. "On the normality of probability distributions of inflation and GNP forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 269-279.
- Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 74-80.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
- Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Baghestani, Hamid, 1994. "Evaluating multiperiod survey forecasts of real net exports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 267-272.
- Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2012-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kyle Renner)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.