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Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective

Author

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  • Svetlana Makarova

    (UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies)

Abstract

The paper discusses main concepts and definitions related to macroeconomic uncertainty as operational concept. It proposes classifications of uncertainty according to areas of application and measurements. Properties of different methodologies of assessing uncertainty used in empirical analysis are discussed. The paper also analyses positive and negative aspects of particular methods and illustrates one of the most relevant problems, which is the biasness of the experts’ based assessments, by the analysis of the National Bank of Poland Survey of Professional Forecasters. A simple uncertainty indicator based on forecast errors for the analysis of inflation uncertainty in Poland is computed and evaluated.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
  • Handle: RePEc:see:wpaper:2014:129
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    File URL: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1463371/1/Measuring%20Techcatch%20Up%20by%20patents_WP_135-BJIDSR.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Svetlana Makarova, 2016. "ECB footprints on inflation forecast uncertainty," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2016-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 19 Jul 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic forecasting; uncertainty; economic policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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