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Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis

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  • Klodiana Istrefi
  • Sarah Mouabbi

Abstract

We present a measure of subjective interest rate uncertainty and explore its effects on the economy for G7 countries and Spain, during the period 1993-2015. This measure is a summary of uncertainty among professional forecasters over the future level of interest rates. We find that subjective interest rate uncertainty is harmful to the economy, with both recessionary and deflationary effects. These effects vary across countries in terms of magnitude and persistence. Differences in economic structures and institutional frameworks can explain this heterogeneity. Central banks can play an important role in mitigating interest rate uncertainty by designing strategies to enhance transparency and communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:rueban:2017:48
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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