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Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis

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  • Klodiana Istrefi
  • Sarah Mouabbi

Abstract

We present a measure of subjective interest rate uncertainty and explore its effects on the economy for G7 countries and Spain, during the period 1993-2015. This measure is a summary of uncertainty among professional forecasters over the future level of interest rates. We find that subjective interest rate uncertainty is harmful to the economy, with both recessionary and deflationary effects. These effects vary across countries in terms of magnitude and persistence. Differences in economic structures and institutional frameworks can explain this heterogeneity. Central banks can play an important role in mitigating interest rate uncertainty by designing strategies to enhance transparency and communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:rueban:2017:48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bfr:rueban:2018:61 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ferrara, L. & Istrefi, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.
    3. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Tran, Trung Duc, 2017. "Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty index for the United States and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 149-153.
    4. Narayan Bulusu & Pierre Guérin, 2018. "What Drives Interbank Loans? Evidence from Canada," Staff Working Papers 18-5, Bank of Canada.
    5. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    6. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
    7. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.
    8. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Persistence of Economic Uncertainty: A Comprehensive Analysis," Working Papers 201810, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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