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Quantifying Uncertainty and Identifying its Impacts on the Turkish Economy

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  • Evren Erdogan Cosar
  • Sayg�n Sahinoz

Abstract

In this study, firstly, we construct indices reflecting the financial uncertainty and the uncertainty perception of different agents such as consumers, firms and forecasters. Then, we develop an index of Economic Policy Uncertainty based on newspaper coverage frequency. In a dynamic factor model framework, we combine these indices to obtain an aggregate measure of economic uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Finally, by using this measure, we investigate the impact of uncertainty on economic activity via vector autoregression models. Empirical evidence shows that uncertainty has adverse impacts on economic growth, consumption and investment in Turkey. The impacts typically take two to three quarters to reach the maximum effect and the most severe effects of uncertainty are observed on investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sayg�n Sahinoz, 2018. "Quantifying Uncertainty and Identifying its Impacts on the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 1806, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1806
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    Cited by:

    1. Akcigit, Ufuk & Akgunduz, Yusuf Emre & Cilasun, Seyit Mumin & Ozcan-Tok, Elif & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2020. "Facts on business dynamism in Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & George Ike & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach," Working Papers 201975, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "“Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty”," AQR Working Papers 2012003, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2020.
    4. Oscar Claveria, 0. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 0, pages 1-23.
    5. Jirasavetakul, La-Bhus Fah & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 13352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
    7. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
    8. Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude & Cilasun, Seyit Mümin & Turan, Belgi, 2020. "Children of Crisis: The Effects of Economic Shocks on Newborns," IZA Discussion Papers 12898, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Business cycle; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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