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Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia

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  • D'Amico, Stefania

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Orphanides, Athanasios

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model-based ex-post measures of macroeconomic risk. Inflation uncertainty is an important driver of bond premia, but the relation varies across inflation regimes. It is most important in the high-inflation regime early in the sample and the low-inflation regime over the last 15 years. Once the role of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, disagreement regarding inflation forecasts appears a much less important driver of bond premia.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2014-24
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    4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
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    12. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-072)," Discussion Paper 2011-053, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bfr:rueban:2017:48 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.
    3. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey expectations; probabilistic forecasts; heterogeneity; inflation uncertainty; bond risk premia;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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