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Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows

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  • Gauvin, Ludovic

    () (EconomiX-CNRS and Banque de France)

  • McLoughlin, Cameron

    () (Graduate Institute, Geneva)

  • Reinhardt, Dennis

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

We examine the extent to which uncertainty with regard to macroeconomic policies in advanced countries spills over to emerging market economies (EMEs) via gross portfolio bond and equity flows. We find that the impact of fluctuations in policy uncertainty on portfolio equity flows differs markedly depending on whether changes in policy uncertainty originate from the Untied States or the European Union (EU). Increases in US policy uncertainty reduce both bond and equity inflows into EMEs. Conversely, increases in EU policy uncertainty decrease bond inflows, but increase equity inflows. The size and direction of these spillover effects depends on the level of global risk, with increased European policy uncertainty only having a negative impact on bond inflows into EMEs when global risk is high. For equity inflows, the level of country-specific sovereign default risk also matters for non-linearities: increased EU policy uncertainty pushes portfolio equity inflows into EMEs even if global risk is high, but only into countries with low sovereign default risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Gauvin, Ludovic & McLoughlin, Cameron & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2014. "Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows," Bank of England working papers 512, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0512
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    3. Pym Manopimoke & Suthawan Prukumpai & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2018. "Dynamic Connectedness in Emerging Asian Equity Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 82, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2018.
    4. L. GAUVIN & C. McLOUGHLIN & D. REINHARDT, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty in advanced countries and portfolio capital flows to emerging markets," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 34, november..
    5. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    6. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2017. "The Impacts of Emerging Asia on Global Financial Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2725-2743, December.
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    8. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Bank of England working papers 705, Bank of England.
    9. Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca, 2014. "Monetary policy in the North, effects in the South," Working Papers 1429, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    10. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    14. Cai, Yifei, 2016. "短期资本流动、经济政策不确定性与恐慌指数—基于时变分析框架下的研究
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    17. Henri Audigé, 2014. "Net flows to emerging markets’ funds and the U.S. monetary policy after the subprime crisis," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Kyoungsoo Yoon & Christophe Hurlin, 2014. "Cross-country-heterogeneous and Time-varying Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies in AEs on Portfolio Inflows to EMEs," Working Papers 2014-5, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

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    Keywords

    Policy uncertainty; portfolio capital flows; EMEs; non-linearities;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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