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Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Cédric Tille
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

Recent crises have seen very large spikes in asset price risk without dramatic shifts in fundamentals. We propose an explanation for these risk panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in risk made possible by a negative link between the current asset price and risk about the future asset price. This link implies that risk about tomorrow's asset price depends on uncertainty about risk tomorrow. This dynamic mapping of risk into itself gives rise to the possibility of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling shifts in risk. We show that this can generate risk panics. The impact of the panic is larger when the shift from a low to a high risk equilibrium takes place in an environment of weak fundamentals. The sharp increase in risk leads to a large drop in the asset price, decreased leverage and reduced market liquidity. We show that the model can account well for the developments during the recent financial crisis.

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File URL: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/textes/10.05.pdf
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Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 10.05.

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Length: 36 pages + 8 figures
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Publication status: Published in American Economic Review, 102, December 2012, pp. 3674-3700
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:10.05
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne

Phone: ++41 21 692.33.20
Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
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Keywords: financial panics and sunspot-like equilibria;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
  • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
  • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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Cited by:

  1. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," Working Paper 2012/12, Norges Bank.
  2. Schmidt, Lawrence & Timmermann, Allan G & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Runs on Money Market Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 9906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "Sudden spikes in global risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 511-521.
  4. Philippe Bacchetta & Cedric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Regulating Asset Price Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 410-412, May.
  5. Tonzer, Lena & Buchholz, Manuel, 2014. "Sovereign Credit Risk Co-movements in the Eurozone: Simple Interdependence or Contagion?," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100443, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  6. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
  7. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
  8. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
  9. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren-Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2017. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: the global dimension of banking crises," Bank of England working papers 644, Bank of England.
  10. Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers, 2016. "Runs on Money Market Mutual Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2625-2657, September.
  11. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.

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