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Collateralization, Leverage, and Stressed Expected Loss

Author

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  • Eric JONDEAU

    (University of Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Amir KHALILZADEH

    (University of Lausanne)

Abstract

We describe a general equilibrium model with a banking system in which the deposit bank collects deposits from households and the merchant bank provides funds to firms. Merchant banks borrow collateralized short-term funds from deposit banks. In a financial downturn, as the value of collateral decreases, the merchant bank must sell assets on short notice, reinforcing the crisis, and default if their cash buffer is insufficient. The deposit bank suffers from loss because of the depreciated assets. If the value of the deposit bank’s assets is insufficient to cover deposits, it also defaults. Deposits are insured by the government. The premium paid by the deposit bank is its expected loss on the deposits. We define the bank’s capital shortfall in the crisis as the expected loss on deposits under stress. We calibrate the model on the U.S. economy and show how this measure of stressed expected loss behaves. In the absence of regulation, a 40% decline of the securities market would induce a loss of 17.8% in the ex-ante value of the assets or 80.7% of the ex-ante value of the equity.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric JONDEAU & Amir KHALILZADEH, 2015. "Collateralization, Leverage, and Stressed Expected Loss," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-24, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Aug 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1524
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jondeau, Eric & Khalilzadeh, Amir, 2022. "Predicting the stressed expected loss of large U.S. banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real business cycle model; Capital shortfall; Systemic risk; Collateral; Leverage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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