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Measuring and stress-testing market-implied bank capital

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  • Dr. Martin Indergand
  • Eric Jondeau
  • Dr. Andreas Fuster

Abstract

We propose a methodology for measuring the market-implied capital of banks by subtracting from the market value of equity (market capitalization) a credit spread-based correction for the value of shareholders' default option. We show that without such a correction, the estimated impact of a severe market downturn is systematically distorted, underestimating the risk of banks with low market capitalization. We argue that this adjusted measure of capital is the relevant market-implied capital measure for policymakers. We propose an econometric model for the combined simulation of equity prices and CDS spreads, which allows us to introduce this correction in the SRISK framework for measuring systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Martin Indergand & Eric Jondeau & Dr. Andreas Fuster, 2022. "Measuring and stress-testing market-implied bank capital," Working Papers 2022-02, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2022-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; capital; stress test; systemic risk; multifactor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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