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Systemic Risk in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Robert F. Engle

    (New York University, New York University (NYU), and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

  • Eric Jondeau

    (University of Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Michael Rockinger

    (University of Lausanne, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

Systemic risk may be defined as the propensity of a financial institution to be undercapitalized when the financial system as a whole is undercapitalized. In this paper, we investigate the case of non-U.S. institutions, with several factors explaining the dynamics of financial firms returns and with asynchronicity of time zones. We apply this methodology to the 196 largest European financial firms and estimate their systemic risk over the 2000-2012 period. We find that, for certain countries, the cost for the taxpayer to rescue the riskiest domestic banks is so high that some banks might be considered too big to be saved.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert F. Engle & Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, "undated". "Systemic Risk in Europe," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-45, Swiss Finance Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1245
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    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2192536
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2002. "Financial markets in times of stress," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 451-470, December.
    3. Gianni De Nicolò & Marcella Lucchetta, 2011. "Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy," NBER Chapters,in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 113-148 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    6. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    7. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    8. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    9. Marcella Lucchetta & Gianni De Nicolo, 2012. "Systemic Real and Financial Risks; Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 12/58, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October.
    11. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mensah, Jones Odei & Premaratne, Gamini, 2017. "Systemic interconnectedness among Asian Banks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 17-33.
    2. Paulo Garrido & Pedro Campos & André Dias, 2015. "Balance Sheet Analysis Of Credit And Debt Networks," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(05n06), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Ahmet Sensoy, 2016. "Systematic Risk in Conventional and Islamic Equity Markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 457-466, September.
    4. Hoffmann, Hannes & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo & Svindland, Gregor, 2016. "Risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 126(7), pages 2014-2037.
    5. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:9:p:1417-1433 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bijlsma, Melle & Vermeulen, Robert, 2016. "Insurance companies’ trading behaviour during the European sovereign debt crisis: Flight home or flight to quality?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 137-154.
    7. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2015. "Extreme risk interdependence," Bank of England working papers 563, Bank of England.
    8. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0020-y is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:kap:annfin:v:14:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-017-0310-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bernardi Mauro & Roy Cerqueti & Arsen Palestini, 2016. "Allocation of risk capital in a cost cooperative game induced by a modified Expected Shortfall," Papers 1608.02365, arXiv.org.
    11. Górnicka, Lucyna A. & Zoican, Marius A., 2016. "Too-international-to-fail? Supranational bank resolution and market discipline," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 41-58.
    12. repec:eee:dyncon:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:165-184 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Betz, Frank & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schienle, Melanie, 2016. "Systemic risk spillovers in the European banking and sovereign network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 206-224.
    14. repec:kap:annfin:v:13:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10436-017-0294-z is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    16. Joost Bats & Aerdt Houben, 2017. "Bank-based versus market-based financing: implications for systemic risk," DNB Working Papers 577, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests: an assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 237-251, August.
    18. repec:eee:finsta:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:62-80 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic Risk; Marginal Expected Shortfall; Multi-factor Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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