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Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics

Author

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  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Cédric Tille
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

Recent crises have seen large spikes in asset price risk. We propose an explanation for such panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in beliefs about risk. A negative link between the current level and the future risk of an asset price leads to a circular relationship between the stochastic process of asset price risk and the price itself. Self-fulfilling shifts in perceived risk can be coordinated around a pure sunspot or around a macro fundamental. In a risk panic, a macro fundamental can be a focal point that affects both the magnitude of the panic and subsequent shifts in perceived risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2012. "Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3674-3700, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:7:p:3674-3700
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.7.3674
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    Cited by:

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    3. Clausen Volker & Schlösser Alexander & Thiem Christopher, 2019. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Euro Area: Cross-Country Spillovers and Macroeconomic Impact," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 957-981, October.
    4. Schmidt, Lawrence & Timmermann, Allan G & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Runs on Money Market Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 9906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Dées, Stephane & Zimic, Srečko, 2019. "Animal spirits, fundamental factors and business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "Sudden spikes in global risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 511-521.
    7. Philippe Bacchetta & Cedric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Regulating Asset Price Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 410-412, May.
    8. Yi Huang & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2019. "Saving China’s Stock Market?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 349-394, June.
    9. Tino Berger & Sibylle Grabert & Bernd Kempa, 2016. "Global and Country-Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 694-716, October.
    10. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    11. Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer, 2016. "Sovereign Credit Risk Co-Movements in the Eurozone: Simple Interdependence or Contagion?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 246-268, December.
    12. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
    14. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    15. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    16. Berger, Tino & Grabert, Sibylle & Kempa, Bernd, 2017. "Global macroeconomic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 42-56.
    17. von der Becke Susanne & Sornette Didier, 2019. "An Asset-Based Framework of Credit Creation (applied to the Global Financial Crisis)," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, July.
    18. Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers, 2016. "Runs on Money Market Mutual Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2625-2657, September.
    19. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2016. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of the Black Swan," Working Papers 16-04, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    20. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    21. Angelo Antoci & Guido Ferilli & Paolo Russu & Pier Luigi Sacco, 2020. "Rational populists: the social consequences of shared narratives," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 479-506, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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