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Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows

  • Gauvin, L.
  • McLoughlin, C.
  • Reinhardt, D.

We study the extent to which uncertainty in advanced country macroeconomic policy spills over to emerging markets via portfolio bond and equity flows. We find that increases in US policy uncertainty significantly reduce portfolio bond and equity flows into EMEs. Conversely, increases in EU policy uncertainty have different effects on equity vs. bond flows into EMEs: equity inflows increase, but bond inflows decrease. The spillover effect of policy uncertainty on capital flows depends on the time period as well as on global and domestic economic conditions. After the financial crisis more of the effect of policy uncertainty on capital flows was transmitted via overall financial market uncertainty than previously. We also find evidence for a structural break in the direction and explanatory power of portfolio flow determinants including policy uncertainty in Q2 2007 at the onset of the financial crisis, and again in Q4 2010. For both bond and equity flows, the level of global financial market uncertainty is the chief driver of the nonlinearities, while in addition to the global factor the level of country specific default risk matters for equity flows only.

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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 435.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:435
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