IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows

  • Gauvin, L.
  • McLoughlin, C.
  • Reinhardt, D.

We study the extent to which uncertainty in advanced country macroeconomic policy spills over to emerging markets via portfolio bond and equity flows. We find that increases in US policy uncertainty significantly reduce portfolio bond and equity flows into EMEs. Conversely, increases in EU policy uncertainty have different effects on equity vs. bond flows into EMEs: equity inflows increase, but bond inflows decrease. The spillover effect of policy uncertainty on capital flows depends on the time period as well as on global and domestic economic conditions. After the financial crisis more of the effect of policy uncertainty on capital flows was transmitted via overall financial market uncertainty than previously. We also find evidence for a structural break in the direction and explanatory power of portfolio flow determinants including policy uncertainty in Q2 2007 at the onset of the financial crisis, and again in Q4 2010. For both bond and equity flows, the level of global financial market uncertainty is the chief driver of the nonlinearities, while in addition to the global factor the level of country specific default risk matters for equity flows only.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/DT-435_01.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 435.

as
in new window

Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:435
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS

Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2011. "Policy Risk and the Business Cycle," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse06_2011, University of Bonn, Germany.
  3. Luis M. Viceira & Adi Sunderam & John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Philippe Bacchetta & Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 10.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  5. Portes, Richard & Rey, Hélène, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 2225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2000.
  7. R. Gaston Gelos & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2987-3020, December.
  8. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "On currency crises and contagion," Working Paper Series 0139, European Central Bank.
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics.
  11. Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "Modelling the time varying determinants of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Working Paper Series 1468, European Central Bank.
  12. Julien Fouquau & Christophe Hurlin & Isabelle Rabaud, 2006. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle : a Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Post-Print halshs-00204807, HAL.
  13. Anne-Laure Delatte & Mathieu Gex & Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio, 2012. "Has the CDS Market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?," Post-Print hal-00739732, HAL.
  14. Straub, Roland & Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas, 2013. "Bubble Thy Neighbor: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79785, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  15. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2008. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing Under the Microscope," NBER Working Papers 14165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Gilchrist, Simon & Sim, Jae W. & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Fixed Investment and Capital Flows ; A Real Options Approach," IMF Working Papers 98/125, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan & Review Financial, 2007. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2614, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jun 2009.
  19. Marco Pagano, 1989. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 269-287.
  20. Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai, 2012. "Asset Fire Sales and Purchases and the International Transmission of Funding Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2015-2050, December.
  21. Lambert, F. & Ramos-Tallada, J. & Rebillard, C., 2011. "Capital controls and spillover effects: evidence from Latin-American countries," Working papers 357, Banque de France.
  22. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 99/46, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2011. "Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 17464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Francisco J. Gomes & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Luis M. Viceira, 2007. "The Excess Burden of Government Indecision," NBER Working Papers 12859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
  26. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
  27. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  28. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2012. "Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes," NBER Working Papers 18329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Hermes, N. & Lensink, R., 2000. "Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies," Research Report 00C30, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  30. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Capital Flows, Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Dennis Reinhardt, 2011. "Surfing the Capital Waves: A sector-level examination of surges in FDI inflows," Working Papers 11.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  32. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Sudden Spikes in Global Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, 07.
  34. Beber, Alessandro & Breedon, Francis & Buraschi, Andrea, 2010. "Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 415-438, December.
  35. Antu Panini Murshid & Ashoka Mody, 2011. "Growth from International Capital Flows; The Role of Volatility Regimes," IMF Working Papers 11/90, International Monetary Fund.
  36. repec:idb:brikps:6516 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova & Marco Lo Duca, 2010. "Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 16397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
  39. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 933-55, September.
  40. Reinhardt, Dennis & Dell'Erba, Salvatore, 2013. "Not all capital waves are alike: a sector-level examination of surges in FDI inflows," Bank of England working papers 474, Bank of England.
  41. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-84, November.
  42. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
  43. R. Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey," IMF Working Papers 11/92, International Monetary Fund.
  44. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "The “Forward Premium Puzzle” and the Sovereign Default Risk," Working Papers 2011-17, CEPII research center.
  45. Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and Currency Crises: Evidence from Survey Data," MPRA Paper 21209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 12564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  48. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-34, June.
  49. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
  50. Le, Quan Vu & Zak, Paul J., 2006. "Political risk and capital flight," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 308-329, March.
  51. Giovanni S.F. Bruno, 2004. "Approximating the Bias of the LSDV Estimator for Dynamic Unbalanced Panel Data Models," KITeS Working Papers 159, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2004.
  52. repec:idb:wpaper:4367 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
  54. Evan W. Anderson & Eric Ghysels & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2005. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 875-924.
  55. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  56. Michael P. Dooley, 1988. "Capital Flight: A Response to Differences in Financial Risks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 422-436, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:435. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.