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Uncertainty and Currency Crises: Evidence from Survey Data

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  • Prati, Alessandro
  • Sbracia, Massimo

Abstract

This paper studies empirically how uncertainty affects speculation in the foreign exchange markets. We use the dispersion of survey forecasts of key macroeconomic variables to measure uncertainty about fundamentals. We find that uncertainty has a non-monotone effect on exchange rate pressures: namely, uncertainty heightens speculative pressures when expected fundamentals are good and eases them when they are bad. We prove that this prediction arises from a broad class of currency crisis theories, ranging from first-generation to global-game models. We also show that the proposed empirical strategy remains valid in the presence of forecasters with strategic objectives and use a novel set of instrumental variables to address potential endogeneity bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and Currency Crises: Evidence from Survey Data," MPRA Paper 21209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21209
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2020. "When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 520, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Michael Frenkel & Jan Christoph Rülke & Lilli Zimmermann, 2011. "Do Current Account Forecasters Herd? – Evidence from the Euro Area and the G7 Countries," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-01, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    4. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    5. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    6. Emanuele Brancati & Marco Macchiavelli, 2015. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Pricing Default: Evidence from the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-79, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
    8. Jan-Christoph Rülke & Maria Silgoner & Julia Wörz, 2012. "Herding Behavior of Business Cycle Forecasters in Times of Economic Crises," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 12-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    9. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2012. "Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 351-356.
    10. Fendel, Ralf & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Some international evidence on the Lucas Supply Function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 157-160.
    11. Valipour Pasha , Mohammad & Ahmadian , Azam, 2019. "Electronic Banking Capacities and Transparency in the Iranian Banking Network," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 14(3), pages 367-388, July.
    12. Beckmann, Joscha & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2022. "Expectations, disagreement and exchange rate pressure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    13. Brancati, Emanuele & Macchiavelli, Marco, 2019. "The information sensitivity of debt in good and bad times," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 99-112.
    14. Diego Moreno & Tuomas Takalo, 2016. "Optimal Bank Transparency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 203-231, February.
    15. Han, Liyan & Liu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Uncertainty and currency performance: A quantile-on-quantile approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 702-729.
    16. Daniel Laskar, 2013. "Ambiguity, Pessimism, Optimism and Financial Crises in a Simple Global Game Model," Working Papers hal-00811923, HAL.
    17. Daniel Laskar, 2013. "Ambiguity, Pessimism, Optimism and Financial Crises in a Simple Global Game Model," PSE Working Papers hal-00811923, HAL.
    18. Nam Kyu Kim, 2018. "Transparency and currency crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 394-422, November.
    19. Lee, Kyounghun & Oh, Frederick Dongchuhl, 2021. "Public information and global games with strategic complements and substitutes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    20. Martínez Ignacio & Mursa Gabriel, 2016. "From Orthodoxy to Heterodoxy: Financial Crisis Literature Compared," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 63(s1), pages 71-87, December.
    21. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Silgoner, Maria & Wörz, Julia, 2016. "Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-33.
    22. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Elian, Mohammad I., 2021. "Analyzing the (a)symmetric impacts of oil price, economic policy uncertainty, and global geopolitical risk on exchange rate," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    23. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2023. "Macroeconomic tail risk, currency crises and the inter‐war gold standard," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1551-1582, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    First-generation models; Global games; Information; Speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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