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Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey

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  • Berument, M. Hakan
  • Dincer, N. Nergiz
  • Mustafaoglu, Zafer

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between growth and growth volatility for a small open economy with high growth volatility: Turkey. Quarterly data for the period from 1987Q1 to 2007Q3 suggests that growth volatility reduces growth and that this result is robust under different specifications. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on how growth volatility affects a set of variables that are crucial for growth. Empirical evidence from Turkey suggests that higher growth volatility reduces total factor productivity, investment, and the foreign currency value of local currency (depreciation). Moreover, it increases employment, though the evidence for this is not statistically significant.

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  • Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2012. "Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 351-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:217:y:2012:i:2:p:351-356
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.09.026
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    3. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Services diversification and economic growth," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 18(1), pages 49-86, June.
    4. Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2019. "Volatility and growth: a not so straightforward relationship," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 874-907.
    5. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Evaluating Minimum-Traffic Guarantees for PPPs in Turkey by Real-Option Pricing," Development Discussion Papers 2016-02, JDI Executive Programs.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    7. Angelos Kanas & Angelos Kotios & Panagiotis D. Zervopoulos, 2019. "Semi-parametric real exchange rates dynamics," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 643-656, February.
    8. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
    9. Tsuboi, Mizuki, 2020. "Growth, R&D, and uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 394-400.
    10. Gülsüm Akarsu, 2017. "Analyzing the impact of oil price volatility on electricity demand: the case of Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 371-388, December.
    11. Burchan Sakarya & Aykut Ekinci, 2020. "Exchange-traded funds and FX volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(4), pages 205-211.
    12. Leandro Maciel & Fernando Gomide & Rosangela Ballini, 2016. "Evolving Fuzzy-GARCH Approach for Financial Volatility Modeling and Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 379-398, October.
    13. Tolga Aksoy, 2016. "The Political Economy Of Structural Reforms," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 25-69, January.

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