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Volatility and Growth: A not so straightforward relationship

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  • Dimitrios Bakas

    () (Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University, UK; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Georgios Chortareas

    () (School of Management and Business, King's College London, UK; Department of Economics, University of Athens, Greece)

  • Georgios Magkonis

    () (School of Management, University of Bradford, UK)

Abstract

This paper is motivated by the conflicting theories and empirical evidence regarding the relationship between business cycle volatility and economic growth. The average reported effect of volatility on growth is negative, but the empirical estimates vary substantially across studies. We identify the factors that explain the heterogeneity of the estimates by conducting a meta-analysis. Our evidence suggests that researchers' choices regarding the measure of volatility, the control set of the estimated equation, the estimation methods, and the data characteristics play a significant role in the total outcome. Finally, the literature is found to be free of publication bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2017. "Volatility and Growth: A not so straightforward relationship," Working Paper series 17-12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:17-12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Volatility; Business Cycles; Meta-Analysis; Bayesian Model Averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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