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Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Kalvinder Shields
  • Nilss Olekalns
  • Ólan T. Henry
  • Chris Brooks

Abstract

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically significant asymmetries and spillovers. Uncertainty about inflation is a determinant of output uncertainty, while higher growth volatility tends to raise inflation volatility. Both inflation and growth volatility respond asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. Negative growth shocks and positive shocks to inflation lead to higher and more persistent uncertainty than shocks of equal magnitude but opposite sign. Keywords: Asymmetry, Inflation, Output Growth, Variance Impulse Response Functions

Suggested Citation

  • Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ólan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 870, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:870
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    File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-03/870.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
    2. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2012. "Oil price uncertainty and the Canadian economy: Evidence from a VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 603-610.
    3. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Netšunajev, Aleksei & Glass, Katharina, 2017. "Uncertainty and employment dynamics in the euro area and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 48-62.
    5. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between China's interbank and exchange T-bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 340-353.
    6. Tino Berger & Sibylle Grabert & Bernd Kempa, 2016. "Global and Country-Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 694-716, October.
    7. Apostolos Serletis & Akbar Shahmoradi, 2007. "Measuring and Testing Natural Gas and Electricity Markets Volatility: Evidence from Alberta's Deregulated Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 16, pages 205-220 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Ramprasad Bhar & Girijasankar Mallik, 2013. "Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1333-1350, December.
    9. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    10. Dahl, Christian M. & Iglesias, Emma M., 2009. "Volatility spill-overs in commodity spot prices: New empirical results," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 601-607, May.
    11. Bhar, Ramprasad & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2010. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(23), pages 5503-5510.
    12. Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder K. Shields, 2013. "Quantifying time variation and asymmetry in measures of covariance risk: a simulation approach," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 18, pages 457-476 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Henry, Ólan & Olekalns, Nilss & Shields, Kalvinder, 2010. "Sign and phase asymmetry: News, economic activity and the stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1083-1100, December.
    14. Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2017. "Volatility and Growth: A not so straightforward relationship," Working Paper series 17-12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. repec:eee:jmacro:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:42-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Chen, Lifang & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2016. "Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 54-69.
    17. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6804 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Kjellberg, David & Post, Erik, 2007. "A Critical Look at Measures of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2007:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    20. Andreou, Elena & Matsi, Maria & Savvides, Andreas, 2013. "Stock and foreign exchange market linkages in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 248-268.
    21. Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2013. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in macroeconomics data: UK inflation, output growth and their uncertainties," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 12, pages 266-288 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Time Variation And Asymmetry In The World Price Of Covariance Risk: The Implications For International Diversification," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 907, The University of Melbourne.
    23. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1460-1466, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetry; Inflation; Output Growth; Variance Impulse Response Functions;

    JEL classification:

    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

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